Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences

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Due to unbalanced distribution of tourists during peak time, tourists are likely to highly flock in certain areas of scenery spots if imperfect organization and management. For this reason, there may be crowds or even trample accidents in addition to unrecoverable damages for the ecological environment in such areas. Therefore, the valid solution is to formulate scientific tourist diversion strategy, reasonably adjust the tour routes, and realize the balanced distribution of tourists over space and time. The prerequisite and base of the research is to establish scientific rational evaluation indicators for diversion strategy. At present, the common indicators include the Variance Model reflecting the balance of load rate for each spot in the scenic region and the Gini-Simpson Index (G-S Index) showing the dispersion degrees of tourists among the scenery spots. However, these indexes highlight the opinions of scenery region managers but ignore the tourism utility during the travel. Such indexes can be used to evaluate the diversion strategy only from a macro view but hardly facilitates shaping any scientific valid suggestions for plan improvement. So this thesis established the evaluation model of tourism utility function (TUF) based on the spot congestion degree and compared the simulation effects of three diversion strategies respectively with three evaluation models, including Variance, G-S Index and TUF. It is found from the comparison results that TUF can better the overall evaluation of the diversion strategies and reveal the relevant inherent problems so as to provide reasonable and suggestions for scientific management on the scenery spot.

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