Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences

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Traffic accidents are very common and it is such a trauma to all the road users. Decreasing the rate of road accidents is an important issue in developing countries including Malaysia. The aim of this study is to investigate the contributing factors of road accidents as well as to determine the effectiveness of structural time series in predicting Malaysian road accidents. This study applied structural time series approach as this method offers the possibilities of modeling time series component in terms of stochastic processes. The estimation process in this study was implemented by using Kalman filter approach. The factors that are incorporated include economic factors, climate factors, calendar effects and intervention policies. The study shows that effects of road accidents in different regions vary due to the unique characteristics in climate effect, the economic effect and influences of calendar effects. Hence, the study suggests that policy makers should enhance different approaches based on the region in ways to improve and to decrease the number of road accidents in Malaysia.

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