Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences

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In this paper, we predict the economic development of Tunisia by applying the alpha (a) model. The model is first validated for ten countries which were qualified as the less corrupted countries worldwide using the classification of International Transparency during the period of 1995 to 2014. Five variables are considered in the model to predict the economic development: Fixed capital formation, GDP per capita, life expectancy, school enrollment and unemployment. A good agreement between measured and predicted economic development data is obtained for all the selected countries. However, for Tunisia, we find a gap between the real and the predicted GDP per capita, which represents the cost of corruption.

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