Journal of Statistics Applications & Probability


This study examines the case of male migration in Egypt, a significant and relatively recent phenomenon. Fertility and migration models are estimated simultaneously to account for cross-correlation. The main aim of the national strategy for population and development 2015-2030 is to reduce the total fertility rate to an average of 2.4 by 2030, compared with 3.5 at present. This paper aims to study the mutual influence of international migration and fertility in Egypt using a simultaneous hazard regression model of two processes, the third childbirth event and the migration event. We use data from the Egypt-HIMS (Egypt Household International Migration Survey 2013). The main conclusion from the study is that there is endogeneity between the husband’s migration and fertility behavior. Specifically, we control for unobserved heterogeneity. The transition to the third childbirth increases the hazard of migration, while a migration event produces a significant increase in the hazard of the third childbirth.

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