A Study of The Saudi Stock Market Using Some Statistical Models

Authors

Abdelgalal O. I. Abaker, Applied College, Khamis Mushait, King Khalid University, Abha, Saudi ArabiaFollow
Abdalla S. Mahmoud, Department of Mathematics, University College at Raniah, P.O. Box 11099, Taif University, Taif 21944, Saudi ArabiaFollow
Badawi O.Mohammed, Department of MIS, Faculty of Business Administration, Albaha University, Albaha, Saudi Arabia\\ Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Omdurman Islamic University, SudanFollow
Ali R. R. Alzahrani, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, Umm Al-Qura University, Makkah, 24382, Saudi ArabiaFollow
Adil. O. Y. Mohamed, Department of Computer Science, College of Computer, Qassim University, Buraydah 52571, Saudi ArabiaFollow
Azhari A. Elhag, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, P.O. Box 11099, Taif University, Taif 21944, Saudi ArabiaFollow

Author Country (or Countries)

Saudi Arabia

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to estimate the diversification effects/benefits of an investment in a portfolio consisting of the South African Industrial (J520) and the Financial (J580) Indices using the Generalised Pareto Distributions (GPDs) with an extreme value Gumbel copula. The GPD is used as the marginal distribution to both assets to better characterize the extreme risk of returns in both Indices tails. The extreme value Gumbel copula captures the dependence structure (co-movement) of the financial assets in the portfolio. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) goodness of fit tests and the scatterplots indicate that the upper tail of the gains (the larger gains) risk and the losses tail (the larger losses) are best captured using the extreme value Gumbel copula. Monte Carlo simulation of an equally weighted portfolio of the two Indices is used to estimate the portfolio risk. The univariate marginal risks and the portfolio risks are used to calculate the diversification effects/benefits. The results show that there are benefits in diversification since the riskiness of the portfolio is less than the sum of the risk of the two financial assets. This implies that VaR, although not additive theoretically, is sub-additive in this practical situation. This property of sub-additivity represents the benefits of diversification for a portfolio. The implication is that investors investing in individual risky assets can benefit from constructing such a portfolio to reduce extreme risk. Due to high dependence and contagion between developed markets/Global markets, this is useful information for local and international investors seeking a portfolio which includes developing countries market Indices, such as South African assets, which are less correlated with other Global markets, thereby reducing the risk of contagion.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

http://dx.doi.org/10.18576/jsap/12S115

Recommended Citation

O. I. Abaker, Abdelgalal; S. Mahmoud, Abdalla; O.Mohammed, Badawi; R. R. Alzahrani, Ali; O. Y. Mohamed, Adil.; and A. Elhag, Azhari (2023) "A Study of The Saudi Stock Market Using Some Statistical Models," Journal of Statistics Applications & Probability: Vol. 12: Iss. 4, Article 15.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18576/jsap/12S115
Available at: https://digitalcommons.aaru.edu.jo/jsap/vol12/iss4/15