Journal of Statistics Applications & Probability

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After independence, in 1971, Bangladesh faced an acute food shortage. Production of rice, the main crop, declined because of the disruption of virtually all agricultural activities during the War of Liberation, and also due to various natural calamities, such as floods, droughts, cyclones, and rapid population growth. It was realized that rice alone could not meet the food requirement of the country. Wheat was therefore chosen as an alternate food crop in the winter season, which remains mostly free from natural calamities. Trend of wheat consumption is increasing over the three decades due to rapid expansion of green revolution technologies, irrigation in dry season, government subsidies in agriculture, improved seeds, increase of arable land, appropriate pesticides use and sufficient fertilizer use. One of the main aims of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) of Bangladesh by the year 2015 is to eradicate hunger, chronic food insecurity, and extreme destitution. Thus it is essential to estimate the production of food-grains. The main purpose of this paper is to identify the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model by Box-Jenkin’s methods that could be used to forecast the production of wheat in Kushtia district as well as Bangladesh. The best selected ARIMA model for forecasting the wheat productions in Kushtia district is ARIMA (1,2,1), and, for whole Bangladesh it is ARIMA (0,2,1). This paper makes a comparison between the original series and forecasted series which also shows the same trend in wheat productions, indicating the fitted model are statistically well behaved to forecast wheat productions in Kushtia district as well as Bangladesh.

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