Mathematical Modelling of the Co-dynamics of iIIicit Drug use and Terrorism

Authors

John O. Akanni, Department of Mathematical and Computing Sciences, Koladaisi University Ibadan, Oyo State, NigeriaFollow
David A. Adediipo, Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, NigeriaFollow
Olakunle O. Kehinde, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Western Cape, South AfricaFollow
Olusola W. Ayanrinola, Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Oyo State, NigeriaFollow

Abstract

In recent years, illicit drug use and an act of terrorism has led to deaths of many people in different countries. This paper used mathematical modelling approach to studied the dynamics of illicit drug use and terrorism in a population. A model was developed and the basic properties of it were studied; the equilibrium points were obtained. Next generation method was used to calculate Illicit drug use and terrorism threshold (R0). Global stability of illicit drug use and terrorism-present equilibrium point was shown to be asymptotically stable analytically; this was achieved by construction of suitable Lyapunov function. The model exhibits backward bifurcation which was studied with by center manifold theory, this reveals to us the serious setback in eradicate illicit drug use and terrorism in the population, even when R0 < 1 except some condition are met. The normalized forward-sensitivity index of the variables was used to determine the contributory effects of each parameter on spread of the illicit drug use and terrorism menace in a population. Numerical simulations were done with the help of MATLAB, this was done to confirm these analytical results. The result indicates the parameters to targeted with corrective control and the one to be strengthen.

Recommended Citation

O. Akanni, John; A. Adediipo, David; O. Kehinde, Olakunle; and W. Ayanrinola, Olusola (2022) "Mathematical Modelling of the Co-dynamics of iIIicit Drug use and Terrorism," Information Sciences Letters: Vol. 11 : Iss. 2 , PP -.
Available at: https://digitalcommons.aaru.edu.jo/isl/vol11/iss2/25